Gaels seek redemption in WCC clash with Broncos

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Moraga, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams at opposite ends of the West Coast Conference spectrum meet in Moraga, California tonight, as the Santa Clara Broncos have come to challenge the 16th-ranked Saint Mary's-CA Gaels.

Santa Clara has had a miserable season thus far, particularly in conference play as it has yet to taste victory against WCC opponents (0-11). Overall, the Broncos have lost twice as many games as they have won (8-16), and they are 0-9 on the road. The team is currently mired in a 12-game losing streak, its last win coming against Eastern Michigan in the opening round of the Cable Car Classic back on December 29.

As for Saint Mary's, it is an impressive 22-3 on the season, and the team had won its first 11 conference bouts before taking on fellow WCC front-runner Gonzaga on Thursday night. The Gaels suffered a 73-59 defeat in that contest, but they'll try to bounce back tonight as they prepare to take on the league's worst team in front of a home crowd that has seen them win each and every time they've stepped foot on the McKeon Pavilion hardwood this season (15-0).

The two teams met on January 21, with Saint Mary's winning at Santa Clara in a 93-77 final.

Poor defense has led to Santa Clara's dreadful record this season, as the team is giving up more than 75 ppg, with foes shooting better than 45 percent from the field and 37 percent from beyond the arc. The Broncos are netting right around 70 ppg themselves, but they're hitting just 41.1 percent of their total shots and they're routinely beaten on the glass. The team's scoring chart shows three double-digit scorers in Kevin Foster, Evan Roquemore and Niyi Harrison, although Foster has been suspended indefinitely, leaving the others to pick up the slack. Raymond Cowells III and Denzel Johnson did just that in the most recent outing against San Franciso, netting 21 and 20 points, respectively, but despite shooting 51.9 percent from the floor and nailing 14- of-23 three-point attempts, the Broncos dropped an 85-69 decision to the Dons. A 15-1 deficit in points from the foul line proved costly, as did a whopping 21 turnovers. Roquemore chipped in 14 points for Santa Clara in defeat.

Simply put, Saint Mary's failed to find its groove in the recent showdown with Gonzaga, as the Gaels shot just 38.2 percent from the field, knocked down a mere 5-of-21 three-point tries and lost the battle on the boards by a 40-26 margin. Matthew Dellavedova led SMC with 20 points, but help came only in the form of 11 points from Jorden Page and 10 from Brad Waldow. About the only bright spot for the Gaels was the fact that they committed a low eight turnovers, which is nearly four less than the team is guilty of on average this year. Dellavedova (15.7 ppg, 6.3 apg) is one of three players currently averaging double digits in the scoring column for Saint Mary's, but the team's most productive all-around player is Rob Jones, who nets 14.6 ppg while pulling down 10.6 rpg. As a collective unit, the Gaels are lighting up the scoreboard to the tune of 76.3 ppg behind typical shooting efforts of 47.7 percent overall and 36.1 percent from three-point land. Defensively, the team permits just 61.4 ppg, and it owns favorable margins in both rebounding (+7.4) and turnovers (+1.0).

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.